Oil rebounds as supply concerns dominate

Brent crude futures rose $0.65, or 0.6%, to $107.90 a barrel by 1311 GMT.

The front-month WTI crude futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, rose $1.06, or 1%, to $103.62 while the second-month contract gained $0.77 to $102.82.

The two main benchmarks had fallen by 5.2% in volatile trading on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast by almost a full percentage point, citing the economic impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine and warning that inflation had become a “clear and present danger” for many countries.  “Weakening growth and mounting inflationary pressure can only mean one thing ie the spectre of stagflation is hanging over the global economy,” said PVM analyst Stephen Greenock.

Global oil prices have been pulled higher by a tighter supply outlook after sanctions against Russia – the world’s second-largest oil exporter and a key European supplier – over its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special operation”.

However, a softer global economic outlook and continuing coronavirus lockdowns in China have hurt demand in the world’s top crude importer and are weighing on prices.

On the supply side, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, produced 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) below its production target in March as Russian output began to decline after sanctions imposed by the West, a report from the producer alliance showed. 

Various outages added to concerns about supply. OPEC member Libya has been forced to shut in 550,000 bpd of output because of a wave of blockades on major oilfields and export terminals, the country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Wednesday.